The following graphs and commentary are intended give the reader insight into the residential real estate market trends in southeast Denver in terms of list and sales price trends, average marketing times, and supply and demand trends. Southeast Denver is the portion of the City and County of Denver south of Ellsworth Ave. and east of Broadway.
How to read the graph:
Blue vertical bars represent the average number of days on the market for the sales each month. The average days on the market trend is represented by a red line on the right axis.
What this means:
The sales and list price trends remain are closely correlated, but are slightly expanding. The expansion between the two indicates sellers are willing to accept greater discounts from the list prices. The average number of days on the market is well over 90 days. The seasonal nature of the market is clearly evident through the 2005-2007 time frame with the shortest average marketing times occurring during the warmer months.
The next graph shows the supply and demand trends in the same market segment. The inventory level is nearing the upper range of historic levels after reaching levels of eight to twelve months of housing supply.
The graph below shows the change in the rate of monthly sales compared to the same month a year ago. Overall, the sales activity in this market is slowing although the last three months showed increased sales activity over the same three months of 2008.
Centennial Appraisal Group, Inc. provides residential real estate appraisal, trend analysis, and consulting services in metro Denver and the suburban mountain foothills.
If in-depth real estate market analysis is important to your decision to engage an appraiser, as a homeowner, investor, lender, or for forensic review, call 303-816-1721. Appraisal services include date of death valuations for estates, pre-listing, divorce, FHA and conventional mortgage lending.
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Disclaimers and Acknowledgements
The research done to gather the data involves examining thousands of listings. With this much data inaccuracies will occur. Care is taken in gathering and processing the data and information within this report is deemed reliable. IT IS NOT GUARANTEED. The real estate market is cyclical and will have its ups and downs. Past performance cannot determine future performance.
This information is offered with the understanding that the author is not engaged in rendering legal, tax or other professional services. If legal, tax or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional are recommended. This is a personal blog reflecting the opinions of its author. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than me.
Investing in real estate is not a get-rich-quick scheme nor is there any guarantee you will make a profit. Every effort has been made to make this report as complete and accurate as possible. However, there may be mistakes. Therefore, this report should be used only as a general guide and not as the ultimate source for making money in real estate.
Today we look at the residential real estate market trends in southwest Denver (DSW). Southwest Denver is the portion of the City and County of Denver south of Ellsworth Ave. and west of Broadway.
Foreclosure activity severely impacted the area over the past couple years. This graph shows the number of bank owned sales per month in southwest Denver (DSW) as reported in the Denver Metrolist. Reading further below we see a correlation between absorption of the real estate owned (REO) sales and the stabilization of the market.
How to read the next graph:
Blue vertical bars represent the average number of days on the market for the sales each month. The average days on the market trend is represented by a red trend line on the right axis.
The sales and list price trends are increasing and the gap between is narrowing. The average number of days on the market is near or under ninety days for the past several months.
The next graph shows the supply and demand trends in the same market segment. The inventory level has been fairly steady between two and four months for the past several months.
The graph below shows the change in the rate of monthly sales compared to the same month a year ago. Absorption of the foreclosure sales is clearly seen in the increased sales activity during 2008 and early 2009.
Today’s look at a real estate market trends focuses on the Friendly Hills subdivision in Morrison, Colorado.
Is there a measurable price differential between using FHA financing or conventional financing in the Friendly Hills subdivision in Morrison, Colorado? Friendly Hills was developed in the 1970's with some infill development in the early 1990’s. The median sales price in 2008 was about $202,000. Let’s take a look.
The data sample consists of 235 sales in Friendly Hills between December 2004 and March 2009. Only sales shown with individuals as the seller type were included in the sample. The sales with sellers reported as banks, government, estates, and relocation companies were excluded. The dark blue trend line illustrates the sales trends of those homes financed with FHA loans. The pink trend line represents the sales trend for homes with new conventional financing.
The trend lines show, on average the costs are higher to purchase a home in the neighborhood using FHA financing than conventional financing. The average difference in price over time is about five percent.
Next – an overview of market performance in Friendly Hills.
Blue vertical bars represent the average number of days on the market for the sales each month. The average days on the market is represented by a red trend line on the right axis.
The list price and sales price trends are shown with the dark blue and pink lines on the left axis.
The list price and sales price trend remain closely correlated. The days on the market trend is increasing, but remains under or near 90 days. There are over 300 sales in this sample.
Colorado Real Estate Trends ©
Today’s look at a real estate market trend answers the question:
Does it cost more to buy a home using FHA financing than conventional financing in the Harvey Park subdivision of southwest Denver?
The data sample consists of over 500 sales in the Harvey Park subdivision of southwest Denver between November 2004 and January 2009. Harvey Park was developed in the 1950's and most improvements are two or three bedroom brick or frame/brick ranch style homes. The median sales price in 2008 was about $165,000. Only sales shown with individuals as the seller type were included in the sample. The sales with the sellers reported as banks, government, estates, and relocation companies were excluded. The dark blue trend line illustrates the sales trends of those homes financed with FHA loans. The pink trend line represents the sales trend for homes with new conventional financing.
Clearly, the trend lines show it costs more to purchase a home in the neighborhood using FHA financing. The average difference in price over time is a little greater than four percent.
Centennial Appraisal Group, Inc. provides residential real estate appraisal, trend analysis, and consulting services in the Denver and suburban mountain foothills areas.
The list price and sales price trend remain closely correlated. The days on the market trend is increasing, but remains well under 180 days. There are 180 sales in this sample. A small sales count in a month with an extended marketing time can skew the results. However, lengthening marketing times is a consistent trend seen in many markets across the Denver metro area.
The commercial:
What is the average price difference on a price per sq. ft. basis (net of seller concessions) between individual sellers and bank and government sellers in the Harvey Park neighborhood of southwest Denver, Colorado?
The sample size consists of 789 sales over the past thirty-seven months. The graph shows there is a significant discount associated with the distressed sales. Over time, the average discount is about 23% (rounded).
If in-depth real estate market analysis is important in your decision to engage an appraiser, as a homeowner, investor, lender, or forensic review, please call 303-816-1721.
Centennial Appraisal Group, Inc. provides residential real estate appraisal, trend analysis, and consulting services in the Denver and suburban mountain foothills areas
The chart below illustrates the market trend in the Mountain Park County East (MPE) market segment of the Denver Metrolist. The area includes the portion of Park County from the Park/Jefferson county line to Kenosha Pass. The area includes the communities of Pine, Bailey, Shawnee, and Grant.
The days on the market are shown with a red trend line on the right axis and the list price and sales price trends in the dark blue and pink lines on the left axis. The list price and sales price trend are beginning to separate and are trending downward indicating the market is accepting greater discounts from the list prices. The days on the market trend is rising but remains well under 180 days.
The next graph shows the supply and demand trends in the same market segment. The inventory level has been trending upwards for several months.
The graph below shows the change in the rate of monthly sales compared to the same month a year ago. It should be pointed out the number of monthly sales in this market segment ranges from eight to forty-two. Changes in a small sample can result in fairly large percentage changes. Overall, the sales activity in this market is slowing although there was a significant uptick in December of 2008.
If in-depth real estate market analysis is important to your decision as a homeowner, investor, lender, or forensic review, call 303-816-1721.
The chart below illustrates the residential real estate market trend in the Mountain Jefferson County Central (MJC) market segment of the Denver Metrolist. The area includes portions of Evergreen, Golden, and Indian Hills, Colorado.
The days on the market are shown with a red trend line on the right axis and the list price and sales price trends in the dark blue and pink lines on the left axis. The list price and sales price trend are beginning to separate and are trending downward indicating the market is accepting greater discounts from the list prices. The days on the market trend is steadily rising.
The next graph shows the supply and demand trends in the same market segment. The inventory level has been trending upwards for the past sixteen months.
The graph below shows the change in the rate of monthly sales compared to the same month a year ago. It should be pointed out the number of monthly sales in this market segment ranges from seven to twenty-one. Changes in a small sample can result in fairly large percentage changes. Overall, the sales activity in this market is slowing.
The chart below illustrates the residential single family market trend in the Mountain Evergreen North (MEN) market segment of the Denver Metrolist. The area includes the northern portion of Evergreen, Colorado.
The chart below illustrates the days on the market with a red trend line on the right axis and the list price and sales price trends in the dark blue and pink lines on the left axis. The list price and sales price trend remain closely correlated. The days on the market trend is fairly steady over the past several months averaging under 150 days.
The next graph shows the supply and demand trends in the same market segment. The inventory level has increased through 2008 and the number of monthly sales is trending downward.
The graph below shows the change in the rate of monthly sales compared to the same month a year ago. The number of sales in this market has decreased each month since February indicating the market is slowing.
The chart below illustrates the market trend in the Mountain Evergreen South (MES) market segment of the Denver Metrolist. The area includes the southern portion of Evergreen, Colorado.
The chart below illustrates the days on the market with a red trend line on the right axis and the list price and sales price trends in the dark blue and pink lines on the left axis. The list price and sales price trend remain closely correlated. The days on the market trend is fairly steady over the past twenty-four months at well under 180 days
The next graph shows the supply and demand trends in the same market segment. The current inventory level is fairly consistent with historic levels.
The graph below shows the change in the rate of monthly sales compared to the same month a year ago. It should be pointed out the number of monthly sales in this market segment ranges from six to thirty. Changes in a small sample can result in fairly large percentage changes. Overall, the sales activity in this market is fairly stable as seen the sales price trends, supply and demand, and the changes in the monthly sales volume.
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